The European IT distribution market can see “light at the end of the tunnel”, as revenues look set to rebound in 2024 following a 6% slump this year.
That’s according to market watcher CONTEXT, which pinpointed Q2 2024 as the “turnaround quarter” for the sector.
It characterised 2023 as a “year of correction” after the Covid-fuelled growth of 2021 and 2022.
This tallies with recent research from IT Channel Oxygen into the UK’s top 45 must-know IT distributors. Their collective revenues grew 9% to £14.1bn in their latest years on record, although a fair chunk of that uplift would have been due to the artificial boost of M&A.
AI and product refresh to turbo-charge 2024
Driven by new AI-based products and use cases, a delayed product refresh cycle and positive comparisons with the previous year, European IT distribution revenues will almost certainly return to growth in 2023, CONTEXT predicted, however.
Growth will fall between -0.5% and 6.5%, with a midpoint of 2.6%, it said.
PCs will lead the way, with mobile computing expanding at between 4.9% and 11.7%, and desktop computing by between -0.8% and 8%, the analyst predicted.
Enterprise servers’ forecast growth range is between -0.4% and 7.6%, and enterprise storage’s between -0.2% and 7.7%, it added.
Other categories, however, are more likely to continue shrinking, however, with desktop monitors’ forecast growth sitting between -6.2% and 2.6%, printer hardware between -5.8% and 3.9% and consumables between -3.3% and 0.6%.
“2023 has been a year of correction after the Covid fuelled growth of recent years. It has been a tough year for distribution and all the IT Industry as businesses suffered a loss of confidence to invest,” said CONTEXT Global Managing Director, Adam Simon.
“However, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
“Q2 2024 will be the turnaround quarter. We predict volume and value growth rates converging, and then continuing in the second half of the year, helped by positive YoY comparisons.”
