Steve Brazier kicked off the Canalys Forum on a dark note, calling an end to a 30-year period in which the channel has had it “easy”.
In contrast to his crowd-pleasing keynote last year, the Informa Fellow warned the audience that they “may not be smiling” by the end of his presentation.
Running a channel business for the last 30 years has been “easy”, but this era is now over, Brazier said.
“I come on stage with a smile, but you may not be smiling by the end of this presentation,” he said.
“[For the last 30 years] you sat there, you waited for new hardware products to launch… and you followed that growth as those categories grew year after year after year.
“Unfortunately, we are calling a turning point today in that 30 years, which is essentially – across the board – the hardware industry is no longer growing.”
Brazier’s downbeat comments were rebuffed by some of the guests he and the Canalys analysts welcomed on stage, however.
Luca Rossi, President of IDG at Lenovo, told Brazier he was being “too pessimistic”, as he predicted the PC market would grow in unit terms by 5-10% in both 2025 and 2026.
Denise Millard, Chief Partner Officer at Dell, characterised the morning’s keynotes as a “reality lens for all of us”, but stressed she is “a little bit more optimistic”.
“If you think about repatriation and customers looking to do more with less, they’re going to come to all of you,” she said.
“So we are well positioned. When we think about the Windows refreshes, when we think about what’s happening to change the game with how devices are going to enable productivity across multiple dimensions, again, we have a really big opportunity in front of.”
“Tough year”
After delivering some hard truths in the opening 10 minutes, Brazier’s opening keynote featured some more nuances for the assembled UK and EMEA partners.
“The exception through all of our presentations today is cybersecurity – cybersecurity is still a double-digit growth business. Those of you well positioned in cybersecurity are definitely in the best place to be,” he said.
The channel has so far been “excluded” from the bulk of the AI boom, which has so far produced only a “tight circle” of winners, Brazier stressed, however.
It has been a “tough year” for partners, particularly those based in Europe, he added.
“There are a few things you can take away from that. One is that now would be a really good time for a major US partner to acquire a major European partner,” he said.
“We are in a position today where if hardware through your organisation is not growing, and unfortunately it is unlikely to grow over next three years – unless we invent a new magical category – then software and services is where you need to focus.
“…But if you want to move into the services space and professional services, that will depend on the quality of your leadership. Many people fail to make the transition.”
Doug Woodburn is editor of IT Channel Oxygen
