CONTEXT has raised its forecast for IT distribution growth, even as it warned its own headline figures “do not tell the whole story”.
The market watcher now thinks European IT distribution revenue will grow 7.5% in 2026 following an expectation-busting H1 performance.
This would represent the highest growth rate since the pandemic.
In the first half, revenues from value-led categories swelled 14% in Q1 and 20% in Q2, while volume-led categories advanced 6% and 9%, respectively.
While “encouraging”, these headline revenue figures “do not tell the whole story”, CONTEXT Research Director Anthony Frot said, however.
“Much of the market’s strength is coming from value rather than a comparable expansion in unit volumes,” he stated.
“For vendors, distributors and resellers, this means the opportunity remains real, but planning needs to account for a market where revenue can look considerably stronger than underlying demand.”
Slowing growth
IT distribution has had something of a mixed 2026.
While the year started with the collapse and failure of the UK’s fourth largest distributor, Exertis UK, the world’s largest broadliners are now experiencing rude, double-digit growth (with TD Synnex set to soon break the $100bn-revenue barrier).
Context said its updated forecast follows a 5.2% increase in European IT distribution revenue in 2025, and represents the strongest annual growth rate since 2020.
“The second half of 2026 should remain positive, but the direction of travel is towards slower and more normalised growth,” Frot said.
“The gap between value and volume will be one of the most important indicators to watch, particularly as businesses set budgets and inventory plans for 2027.”
Momentum will “moderate further” in the first half of 2027, CONTEXT said, with growth set to hit 3.1% and 2% in Q1 and Q2, respectively.
