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AI ‘trickle down’ questioned amid Q3 channel partner profit slide

More than half channel partners expect operating profits to fall this quarter, Omdia claims

Oxygen staff by Oxygen staff
28 September 2026
in Market data, News, Tech trends
Jay McBain, Canalys

Jay McBain, Canalys

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The $7tn AI buildout isn’t having an immediate “trickle down effect” in the channel, an analyst warned as he flagged data suggesting profits are declining at most channel partners.

According to a poll Omdia ran this month, over half (51%) of channel partners expect their Q3 operating profits to fall, with 36% predicting a double-digit decline.

Only 35% expect profits to grow.

Computacenter’s market value has nearly doubled in 2026 amid its burgeoning success selling AI infrastructure to US and European hyperscalers, neoclouds and enterprises.

But writing on LinkedIn, Omdia Chief Analyst Jay McBain claimed the wider channel is failing to cash in on AI.

“The $7tn buildout of AI that we hear about constantly in the consumer news – the tech industry growing at double-digits, massive IPOs hitting the streets, trillionaires being minted – isn’t having an immediate ‘trickle down’ effect to channel partners,” he wrote.

Omdia warned in May that a rebound in channel sentiment in Q2 – fuelled by forward purchases – may be short-lived as the memory shortage fall out unwinds.

Vendors should be employing agentic AI to help channel partners sell more, McBain claimed.

Asked by Omdia where an AI agent would be most beneficial in a vendor’s partner programme, some 57% of respondents pinpointed sales.

In contrast, just 11% plumped for marketing.

“Partners need to grow, plain and simple,” McBain wrote.

“Partners need the sales tooling and AI-related investments to recover this negative Q3 into a great Q4 to finish the year strong.”

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