UK channel partners have been told to brace for “pandemic levels” of kit shortages in 2026, with the AI boom to blame.
The channel has so far been largely locked out of the AI explosion, which has instead produced only a “tight circle of winners”, analysts have asserted.
To make matters worse, AI datacentres are now getting first dibs on the kit that might otherwise be destined for the channel’s enterprise and SMB customers (despite warnings that this frenetic AI build out is unsustainable).
Since December, numerous hardware vendors have written to partners warning them of stock constraints and price rises.
“There is a major global chip shortage, all being triggered by the AI boom, and vendors can’t keep up with demand,” Ian Nethercot, COO at Probrand, told IT Channel Oxygen.
“I’ve heard we could be looking at pandemic levels of shortages.
“We are obviously heading into a busy quarter now, so it’s not ideal timing for the market either.”
Simon Rutt, Group Commercial Director at MTI, said the shortages are impacting “anything with a memory chip in it”, but especially servers.
“Organisations who are prioritising data centre kit for large-scale AI deployments are securing the bulk of the stock. Some vendors might be over-stating the impact, but we are already seeing delays in shipping estimates and reduced periods for supplier quote validity,” he said.
In an update sent to partners on 11 December and seen by IT Channel Oxygen, unified data platform VAST confirmed it would introduce shorter quote validity terms of two weeks beginning on 1 January 2026 (see more, bottom).
Dell – which is reportedly hiking prices by up to 30% – is another to have reached out to partners warning that a surge in demand is outpacing supply.
“Delaying decisions or waiting until later in the procurement cycle may unfortunately result in significant disadvantages,” Dell stated in an EMEA Strategic Partners Technology Update dated 15 December, also seen by IT Channel Oxygen (see more, bottom).
Brian Dunleavy, Chief Commercial Officer at Viadex, said the MSP is now seeing price hikes of “27% to 140%” from major vendors on live projects.
“I think we’re in for a very similar time [to Covid] over the next 12-18 months,” Viadex CEO Dino Cooper told IT Channel Oxygen.
“The only way you can really help your clients is by urging them to make data-driven decisions ahead of time. In the absence of that, they’re going to feel pain throughout the year.”
Kelvin Lee, CRO of XMA, said the channel is “not feeling the pinch quite yet”, but predicted chronic shortages in lower-end servers and devices will emerge from Q2.
“I suspect higher-spec machines will be okay, as long as we’re giving plenty of notice to the manufacturers,” he told IT Channel Oxygen.
“But I feel from Q2 or Q3 a lot of the lower-spec machines could be in trouble – the very lowest-level 64GB Chromebooks will have trouble getting memory and chipsets.
“The big message coming out is that prices are going up, lead times will increase – so get ahead of your requirements and let us know as early as possible.”
Rachel Brindley, Senior Director, Channels at Omdia, confirmed the analyst is hearing the same message from partners.
“We expect a volatile 2026 with the prospect of supply shortages and price increases. Partners with a strong focus on services will be well placed to navigate their customers through this phase,” she said.
Dell dishes advice
In its EMEA Strategic Partners Technology Update last month, Dell offered partners some top tips and talking points to assuage customers worried about stock shortages.
Pricing pressure and tightening supply on component costs for memory and SSDs (DRAM and NAND) is accelerating across the industry, it confirmed in the missive.
Dell advised partners to “align early” by sharing 8-12-week rolling demand forecasts to help coordinate supply allocations.
It also urged them to finalise near-term configurations sooner to protect budgets against potential cost moves and lead-time constraints.
When it comes to customer talking points, Dell advised partners to stress the issue is an industry-wide one.
They should also tell customers that “pricing depends on delivery timing; let’s align on milestones now to minimise exposure to monthly step‑ups”.
VAST’s partner vows
In its partner update last month, VAST stressed it “wants to be transparent” about how it responds to the memory and storage shortage.
As well as shortening quote validity terms to two weeks, the vendor said from this month onwards it will review hardware pricing on an ongoing basis.
“We do not take these actions lightly. They are a direct response to global supply constraints, not a shift in our partner strategy. Our commitment to a partner first model remains unchanged,” VAST stated.
In a post on LinkedIn this week, VAST’s VP International Peter Gadd span the news as a potential positive for VAST, arguing the appropriate response “isn’t to stop buying”, but to “buy smarter”.
“The first wave of AI infrastructure optimised for speed at any cost. Redundancy was brute force. Overprovisioning was normal. That worked when hardware was cheap and plentiful. It doesn’t when supply chains are tight and capital is scrutinised,” he wrote.
“The conversation has quietly shifted from ‘How fast can we scale?’ to ‘How far can we stretch what we already have?’.”
Doug Woodburn is editor of IT Channel Oxygen
