In an unusually bleak Canalys Forums opening keynote, Steve Brazier this morning called a “turning point” for an IT channel spoilt by three decades of hardware growth.
“I come on stage with a smile, but you may not be smiling by the end of this presentation,” the Informa Fellow warned during a 20-minute home truths-dispensing session in which he claimed the era of hardware growth was over.
“Unless we invent a new magical category, then software and services is where you need to focus,” the Canalys Founder went on to say, adding that the channel has so far been largely “excluded” from the AI boom.
A more nuanced picture emerged throughout the morning, with Canalys Chief Analyst stressing that the analyst sees opportunities ahead in several areas.
Brazier, on the other hand, was all shock and awe.
But was he being too pessimistic for an audience just about to draw up their 2025 battle plans?
IT Channel Oxygen grabbed nine partner leaders after the morning’s sessions to get their snap opinion…
Martin Hellawell, Chair at Raspberry Pi, Gamma Communications and musicMagpie
Too pessimistic? Yes
“Steve’s great talent is shocking people and making them think, and he managed to do that… but there’s so much more opportunity for the channel in tech, and I feel as confident now as I ever did.”
Hayley Roberts, CEO, Distology
Too pessimistic? No
“I think he was very realistic. It’s hard to be optimistic when we’ve all had such a difficult year. Ultimately, what I took away from it was that cybersecurity is on the up and channel’s not going away – brilliant! I don’t think he was too downbeat.”
Phil Bell, Chief Revenue Officer, Westcoast
Too pessimistic? Yes
“[In my panel session], I said we needed some positivity after Steve’s thing – he basically told everyone to stop doing hardware, which is basically my business.
“But I think that the channel is buzzing at the moment. I think there’s so much opportunity.
“I think there are loads of reasons to be optimistic, but we probably do have to accept that the full channel – £25bn or whatever it is in the UK – is now going to grow at single digits unless, as Steve says, a new category is invented. It’s about accepting we’re in single-digit growth and finding a way to do more services and solutions around that.”
Graeme Watt, Chairman Softcat
Too pessimistic? Yes
“I also think [Steve was] too pessimistic. You had other comments from the hardware vendors themselves, who are very optimistic about not just refresh cycles, but everything that AI is going to bring.
“For Softcat, about 30% of our business is hardware today, and we continue to invest in hardware, software and services across the board because we think there are opportunities in all areas.
“And, by the way, if people get out of hardware, that means there’s more left for the people that remain, so I don’t think we need to pivot somewhere else. I think there are opportunities everywhere, so I’m definitely feeling more positive than Steve.”
Dave Stevinson, CEO, QBS Software
Too pessimistic? No judgement either way
“We’re not in the main channel – only in software – but his other colleague did contradict him immediately afterwards, saying growth is going to be 4% [in 2025].
“I couldn’t work it out because there were two contradictory messages. However it was quite a dark presentation – the first in my lifetime in the tech industry where someone’s telling us something’s going to be so bad.”
David Terry, Vice President , IT Channels Europe, Schneider Electric
Too pessimistic? It depends
“I think Steve was focusing on the short term. When we’re looking at mid to longer term, no, I would massively disagree [with Brazier’s comments]. I would say the channel is very much alive in that conversation [about AI] – it’s just at this current moment [all the activity is with] AWS and the hyperscalers, and it’s a bit of an arms race.”
Luke Horton-Walker, MD, Cameo
Too pessimistic? No, but the information was conflicting
“It was quite conflicting. There was a lot of ‘you’ve got to evolve into professional services’. But conversely, in the final presentation with Dell, and the one previous to that, they were talking about the biggest tech refresh the industry’s ever seen.”
Gill Holloway, EMEA VP Partnerships, Insight
Too pessimistic? Not judging either way
“There is no doubt that it’s been a tougher year for many reasons than anyone predicted in 2023. However, that means we have to be more creative, more deliberate and more tenacious than before. The industry is still worth trillions and people are still winning but unfortunately not everyone can.”
Rich Marsden, CEO, Ebuyer
Too pessimistic? Yes
“It’ll be more challenging – no question – over the next few years. I don’t necessarily share the same pessimism that the party is over. There are still lots of pockets of opportunity in a tough market. It depends on your scale, and for us we’re relatively small, so growing and taking share is a bit easier than going the other way.”
Doug Woodburn is editor of IT Channel Oxygen
